波尔多2012期酒:中间商们”平静”看待2012年份,但担心影响2011年份

波尔多2012期酒:中间商们”平静”看待2012年份,但担心影响2011年份

编译/陆江(Maxime LU)/万欧兰葡萄酒俱乐部 

陆江点评:2012年份期酒,品质并非优秀年份,降价已成定局,只是酒庄、中间商(Negociant)、酒商和消费者之间还在博弈,酒庄正在均衡各方利益和衡量降价幅度。其中对2011年份、2010年份销售的影响,是个考量要点,对于中间商和酒商而言,重要一点是调整心态。不过通过分析各方想法和以往销售情况,基本已调整好心态,接受降价现实,下一步就是酒庄陆续出价。


2013年4月15日(星期一)Adam Lechmere,Decanter
2012年波尔多期酒,波尔多酒商说,他们对于2012年份的质量并无担心,但大多数人认为,这将严重影响当前2011年份的销售情况。

Barrieres Freres的Ehrmann说:“我们对我们2011年份剩余库存比较乐观。”

‘2012年份会杀了2011年份’,这是许多在波尔多的人们的看法。Angelus酒庄的董事总经理Stephanie de Bouard向记者提到了这一情况。
德国酒商也同样说到:“我们中的大多数,都有不少2011年份的酒,我们是被迫购入的 – 而且2012年份将严重打压2011年份的销售。”
De Bouard说,问题主要是因为定价 – ‘2012年品质优于2011年,而2012的价格却更低’ 。

当然中间商们也有觉得2011年份早晚是能出手的。

Sichel的出口总监Charles Sichel说,“2011年份会比较难卖,我们准备存一段时间,等经济复苏了,还是应该能出手。这种情况在07、06、04等年份呀发生过。”

John Kolasa

John Kolasa/photo by  陆江(Maxime LU)

John Kolasa,管理着香奈儿旗下的Rauzan Segla酒庄和中间商Ulysses Cazabonne,他提到“他不担心2012的品质,只是对市场状况不太乐观”。

Mathieu Chadronnier,是销售额达到1.41亿欧元的CVBG Dourthe Kressman的董事总经理,他说他并不担心2011年份.‘每个年份都有其适合的市场。2008年份发布得很便宜,卖的也快, 08买完后07也变得好卖了。2011年份应该也是同样.’ 波尔多现在遇到的情况是,在市场火爆的那几年,波尔多爱好者们买了大量过去的年份,使适饮的酒在市场上比较缺少。中间商们希望2011年份能填上这个空缺。

“我们有2011年份的剩余库存,但我并不担心,因为很多人还是愿意买现货【2011年份将在6月开始装瓶】,”大中间商Barrieres Freres的Laurent Ehrmann说,“品质不错,价格合理的年份像2001,02,07和08都没有多少库存了。”

2012年份的关键是价格,但是2012年份会严重影响过去两个年份的销售。保留2011和2010的库存并不难,难的是在困难的经济环境中资金的挤占。考虑到一等庄的价格,这将会是个比较尖锐的问题。

尽管2010年份,这是个不错的年份,甚至很多人认为是最好的年份之一,中间商们仍然还有2010年份的库存,尤其在2012年初被中国买家取消订单的那些中间商们,其中包括一个3千万美金的合同。 “我比较担心的是,我已经压在最近两个年份的一等庄和超级二等庄上的金额,”Kolasa说到。那些大中间商也许能扛得住,但对于小中间商们来说,“银行将会来告诉他们削减2010和2011年份的库存,从而能释放出现金,以便能购买2012年份和保持生意的继续进行。”

另一个重要的考虑因素,波尔多似乎已经感受到,十年以来第一次,波尔多变成了买方市场,权力的装换,有利于中间商和酒商们。

传统上来说,无论是中间商或酒商,买家必须要小心展示出对他们供应商的忠心,即使较差年份也要购买,以确保在好年份能拿到配额。

但现在,“旧的忠诚”已经没了,Kolasa指出。 “即使是那些去年主动削减其配额的酒商,想要重新恢复其配额也并不困难。”

2009年份波尔多期酒消极因素-Bordeaux Prices to Drop Big in U.S.

前面刚说完2009年份波尔多期酒的可能疯狂, 不过<商业周刊>(BusinessWeek)这则前几周的消息也许对波尔多贪婪的庄主们来说是个要考虑的消极因素因素. 希望能对他们定价有影响!

作为在美最大的波尔多顶级酒进口商,帝亚吉奥Diageo美国分支Chateau & Estate Wines将要退出美国的波尔多酒市场,为此抛售巨量波尔多列级酒, 带动整个美国市场的波尔多列级酒价格急挫,一些品种甚至下跌达到50%.  阴霾笼罩整个美国市场以及影响到法国波尔多. 葡萄酒爱好者将会受益.

不过最后的那句:”Several chateaux told me they expect the Chinese will buy big during the futures campaign this year.”(一些酒庄告诉我,他们认为今年中国人将会在这场期酒活动中大量采购),无语中…….

http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/mar2010/bw20100316_823658.htm

Bordeaux Prices to Drop Big in U.S.
波尔多价格在美国暴挫.

As importing giant Diageo pulls out of the U.S. Bordeaux market, wine lovers will benefit as prices are expected to fall dramatically

Review by Elin McCoy
(Bloomberg) — “What’s terrifying,” said John Kolasa, managing director of Bordeaux chateau Rauzan-Segla, “is what will happen to Bordeaux wines in America now that Diageo has bowed out.”
I was sipping his silky, charming 2007, one of the best wines from this lackluster vintage poured at the annual Union des Grands Crus tasting in New York, which never includes the first growths.
So far 2010 is awash in discounted Bordeaux and the mostly middle-rung ’07s promise more. That’s because the biggest U.S. importer of Bordeaux wines, Diageo Chateau & Estate Wines, a unit of British drinks giant Diageo Plc, announced last year that it was getting out of the Bordeaux business in the U.S.—and then started selling off its vast inventory in October.
Clyde Beffa Jr., owner of Bay Area K & L Wines and one of several retailers offered stock, said Chateau & Estate’s list included approximately $125 million of top Bordeaux. Diageo Director of Communications Maire Griffin declined to provide numbers.
For the past four decades, Chateau & Estate dominated the U.S. Bordeaux business, purchasing thousands of cases of the region’s top names as futures every year. Its large inventory of past vintages made it a one-stop shop for retailers and restaurateurs looking for Bordeaux. Diageo will continue to sell Bordeaux outside the U.S. through its London-based unit Justerini & Brooks.
“This is the end of a very nice story for Bordeaux,” Emmanuel Cruse, whose family owns Chateau d’Issan, said in a phone interview. “The national system is dead.”
Buyers’ Bonanza
For wine lovers, it’s good news.
“Bordeaux will get cheaper,” said negociant Ivanhoe Johnston, with whom I chatted over a spit bucket at the tasting.
Last fall Chateau & Estate and its distributors sent spreadsheets listing recent and older Bordeaux vintages to key U.S. players, such as Beffa and Chris Adams, president of New York’s Sherry-Lehmann. Beffa said he scooped up wines at 40 percent to 60 percent off wholesale. He’s already out of 2006 Chateau Trotanoy, which he sold at half off.
Sherry-Lehmann is selling bottles of some 2006s for 10 percent to 15 percent less than they cost as futures 2 1/2 years ago, Adams said. The 2005 Chateau Greysac, which was an exclusive with Chateau & Estate, can now be had in some shops for as little as $12.
‘Sliced and Diced’
“No one had the means to take on all the inventory,” Robert Wilmers, owner of Chateau Haut-Bailly and chief executive officer of M & T Bank Corp., told me at a Wine Media Guild lunch before the tasting. “It was sliced and diced.”
In the past few months two Bordeaux negociant firms have stepped in to fill the void, snapping up the best Chateau and Estates stocks at very attractive prices.
“We bought mainly 2005 and older vintages,” said David Milligan, president of Joanne USA, the New York office of the Bordeaux negociant, by phone.
Compagnie Medocaine, a unit of AXA Millesimes, which also owns several top chateaux, has teamed up with New York fine-wine importer Frederick Wildman, and started selling on March 1. Negociant Diva Bordeaux will open a New York office in May, Chief Executive Officer Jean-Pierre Rousseau said in a phone call.
“Nature hates a vacuum,” said Laurent Ehrmann, general manager of negociant Barriere Freres. “It will be filled by different means.”
Unloading 2007s
Which brings me back to the unloved 2007s. According to Diageo’s Griffin, the company begins unloading the rest of their 2007s this month.
That may be tough. Sales of high-end wines in restaurants are flat and everyone agreed the 2007 futures were overpriced for the quality back in spring 2008.
At their best the reds are fruity, early-drinking charmers that have lift and freshness but lack concentration. For under $30, look for firm, rich classics like Cantemerle and Poujeaux. I also liked pricier Beychevelle, Giscours, Haut-Bailly and especially Rauzan-Segla. Dry whites like Domaine de Chevalier and sweet Sauternes, like good value Doisy-Daene, are the stars. Watch for deeper discounts: K & L Bordeaux specialist Ralph Sands predicts “a bloodbath,” with prices up to 50 percent off.
The buyer-friendly market won’t last forever. The consensus among retailers is that bargains will be gone in six to eight months. Of course, if the financial markets crash again, all bets are off.
Chateau owners at the UGC tasting were hyping the reportedly spectacular 2009s (I’ll report on those in detail next month after attending the annual en primeur tastings). In the minds of the Bordelaise, this kind of “vintage of the century” is supposed to translate into very high prices, as it did for the 2005s. But the global financial climate has changed.
Several chateaux told me they expect the Chinese will buy big during the futures campaign this year.
I’ve heard that one before.
(Elin McCoy writes on wine and spirits for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are her own.)
To contact the writer of the story: Elin McCoy at elinmccoy@gmail.com.